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02 NOV 2024

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Elon Gilad

Why Aren't Ceasefire Negotiations in Sight Despite the Elimination of Sinwar and Nasrallah?


Posters in front of the Kirya, calling for the return of Israeli hostages taken to Gaza. Sign just below and to the right of center says "Bring our little BABY back" (Oren Rozen / https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/)

This article is a follow-up to "Hostage-Ceasefire Deal: Why It Isn't Happening".


The recent elimination of terror group Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was expected to shift the balance in Israel's favor, potentially opening a path toward ceasefire talks and a hostage deal. Yet, contrary to those expectations, progress toward negotiations remains elusive. Leadership decapitation alone has not been enough to break the entrenched dynamics of the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts, and recent developments underscore the resilience of militant groups and the broader geopolitical complexities at play.


Leadership transitions within terror groups  


While the removal of Sinwar and Nasrallah has created power vacuums within Hamas and Hezbollah, it has not necessarily made the path to ceasefire clearer. In fact, leadership transitions within such terror groups often create uncertainty, making it difficult to identify negotiating partners and increasing the risk of internal power struggles.


Though Sinwar was seen as a key obstacle in negotiations, his death has not yet yielded tangible progress. US diplomats have stated his elimination was an “opportunity” for a ceasefire and a hostage release deal. However, as of now, Hamas’s demands remain unchanged, and Israel is still waiting to see how the group’s new leadership will emerge. The broader lesson from past conflicts suggests that new leaders in terror groups like Hamas often continues resistance to avoid appearing weak. This is likely to persist in the coming weeks, as potential successors within Hamas work to consolidate power without compromising the group’s ideological principles.


Israeli military and political considerations


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, after the October 7 attacks and subsequent military successes, remains focused on achieving its military objectives.

  1. Military objectives: Israel’s primary goal remains the dismantling of Hamas’s military infrastructure in Gaza. With ongoing IDF operations and the recent death of Sinwar, Israel appears committed to maintaining pressure on Hamas until its military goals are achieved.

  2. Public sentiment: The Israeli public, still reeling from the October 7 attacks, largely supports continued military action. Any move toward a ceasefire could be politically risky unless presented as a major victory—such as the release of hostages or the complete degradation of Hamas’s military capabilities.

  3. Strategic calculations: Broader regional concerns, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s influence, continue to shape Israeli strategy. Mossad Director David Barnea has been advocating for a broader deal that would address both Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially ending the Israel Defense Forces’s campaigns on both fronts. However, the security cabinet has yet to reach consensus on this approach.

The killing of Sinwar may offer a potential “off-ramp” for the Gaza conflict. A two-week ceasefire deal, reportedly proposed by Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and discussed in Cairo with Egyptian officials, would see the release of five hostages in exchange for a temporary halt in fighting. This limited plan could be a step toward de-escalation, but it remains unclear if Hamas would accept such terms.

Role of external actors

The involvement of external powers, particularly Iran and the United States, adds another layer of complexity to ceasefire efforts. While Iran continues to back Hamas and Hezbollah, the Israeli government is bracing for an ongoing exchange of strikes with Iran.

At the same time, the United States is pushing for a resolution. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel last week, hoping to advance negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. 

US officials see the death of Sinwar as an “opportunity” for a negotiated deal but Washington’s efforts are complicated by its dual priorities: supporting Israel militarily while addressing the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The US has also put pressure on Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza, warning that disruptions in aid could jeopardize arms transfers to Israel. With US elections approaching, there is limited time for the Biden administration to secure progress on this front, making the next few weeks critical for diplomacy.

Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar, long-standing mediators in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, remain involved in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Egyptian officials have been in talks with both Israeli and Hamas representatives, but as of now, no breakthrough has been reported.


The hostage crisis: A complicating factor?


One of the most significant obstacles to ceasefire negotiations remains the ongoing hostage crisis. The Hamas terror group still holds a large number of Israeli hostages, using them as leverage in any negotiations. The potential fragmentation of Hamas following Sinwar’s death further complicates the issue, as it is unclear whether all factions within the group will agree to release hostages, even in exchange for a ceasefire.


Israel has proposed a limited ceasefire in exchange for the release of five hostages, but the broader question of a comprehensive deal remains unresolved. With the leadership of Hamas still in flux, any agreement on hostages may have to wait until new figures consolidate their power.


Wrap-Up


Despite the eliminations of Sinwar and Nasrallah, the prospect of a ceasefire remains distant. Israel’s military objectives, the resilience of these terror organizations, and the complex web of regional actors all contribute to the current impasse. There are parallel efforts underway—ranging from limited ceasefire proposals to broader deals encompassing both Gaza and Lebanon— but none have yielded a breakthrough.


The coming weeks will be critical as new Hamas terror leadership emerges, US diplomatic efforts intensify, and Israel balances its military and political goals.


 A ceasefire may still be within reach, but it will require a multifaceted approach that goes beyond leadership decapitation and takes into account the full scope of regional and international dynamics.


 

Elon Gilad is an Israeli author, journalist, and linguist. His work focuses on uncovering the historical roots of contemporary issues, particularly in current affairs, Jewish history, and the Hebrew language. Gilad is the author of "The Secret History of Judaism." His analytical pieces draw on his diverse background to provide unique insights into today's complex issues, explaining current situations through the lens of historical development.



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