The ongoing war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas in Gaza, which erupted on October 7, 2023, is one of the deadliest and most complex conflicts in the region’s history. Hamas massacred over 1,200 Israelis, including women, children, and the elderly.
The terror group initiated the war with a surprise and brutal attack, breaching the Gaza border and infiltrating Israeli towns and the Nova music festival.
Central to the crisis are the 251 hostages Hamas took during the attack on Israel’s south and the repeated, yet failed, attempts to secure a lasting ceasefire. Why hasn’t a comprehensive hostage-ceasefire deal been reached despite months of negotiations?
Hostages and Past Ceasefire Agreements
This isn’t the first time Hamas has taken hostages; Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was himself released in the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, in which Israel released 1,027 prisoners in exchange for a single soldier abducted by the group.
At the time, critics of the deal argued that it would encourage Hamas to take more hostages in the future, although the Israeli public largely supported it.
In late November 2023, after weeks of intense fighting, a breakthrough occurred: a hostage exchange agreement was brokered under a ceasefire.
Under this deal, Hamas agreed to release 80 Israeli hostages in exchange for 210 Palestinian prisoners.
A temporary four-day ceasefire was declared alongside the exchange, later extended twice, providing a seven-day window of reduced violence.
Humanitarian aid was allowed into Gaza during this period, offering brief relief to the population.
However, this initial success quickly gave way to renewed hostilities.
Hamas continued to hold dozens of hostages, refusing to release them without further concessions. As the ceasefire ended, fighting resumed with full force, marking the failure of efforts to reach a more permanent agreement.
Since November 2023, multiple rounds of negotiations have been attempted to secure both the release of the remaining hostages and a broader ceasefire.
However, talks have stalled repeatedly due to deep-seated distrust and conflicting strategic goals.
Why Gaza Ceasefire Talks Are Stalled
Negotiations between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, have been ongoing for months. While some progress has been made regarding timetables and prisoner release numbers, a comprehensive deal remains elusive.
Senior U.S. officials have told The Wall Street Journal they don’t expect an agreement before President Joe Biden’s term ends. The real reason for this failure lies in the vastly different objectives of each side.
Hamas's position
For Hamas, the hostages are its only leverage, and it is unwilling to give that up unless it secures the safety of its leadership and continued rule over Gaza. In addition to the release of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas is demanding:
Full withdrawal of Israel from Gaza
Lifting of the Israeli siege on the Strip
A permanent ceasefire
Guarantees that Israel won't attack Gaza after the hostages are released
Hamas seeks a mechanism to prevent Israel from targeting its leadership, re-arresting the released prisoners, or reoccupying Gaza. Since Hamas isn’t a real state actor but rather a terrorist group in control of a small territory, there is very limited ability for foreign governments to pressure them into accepting a deal that does not meet their goals.
Israel's position
While many in Israel grudgingly accept Hamas’s demands as a necessary evil to save the remaining hostages, hardliners within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have threatened to collapse the coalition if an agreement they deem too lenient is reached.
Under Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel seeks a temporary ceasefire that results in the release of the hostages but does not lead to a permanent end to the war. This position stems from several factors, including the desire for retribution for the atrocities of October 7. Many Israelis find it unimaginable that those responsible for such heinous acts would go unpunished.
Israel fears that leaving Hamas in control of Gaza without the ability to strike again could lead to another, potentially more devastating attack.
Blamed by many for the failures that led to the October 7 attack, Netanyahu is under pressure to either deliver a “decisive military victory” or continue the conflict until the next elections in October 2026.
Any agreement that leaves Hamas in control could collapse his government and trigger snap elections.
A potential solution to the impasse could involve addressing Gaza's governance, tying the ceasefire-prisoner swap deal to an agreement for new governance in Gaza. However, Hamas is unlikely to agree to relinquish control to any alternative government, particularly the Palestinian Authority, dominated by its rival, Fatah.
Wrap-up
The fundamental incompatibility between Hamas's demand for a permanent ceasefire with guarantees for its continued rule and Israel's refusal to grant such terms forms the core of the current stalemate.
Netanyahu’s political constraints, coupled with Hamas’s limited vulnerability to diplomatic pressure, suggest that a breakthrough is unlikely without significant changes in the political landscape—particularly within the Israeli government.
By Elon Gilad
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