Will the Iran War Revive the Abraham Accords? A Gulf Perspective
- Dr. Ahmed Khuzaie
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
By Ahmed Khuzaie
A New Gulf Perspective on Israel After the War
In light of the recent war, Israeli media has renewed its focus on the Gulf’s evolving stance toward normalization with Israel and the possibility of expanding the Abraham Accords. The conflict has shifted perceptions across parts of the region, with public opinion increasingly viewing Iran as a more immediate threat than Israel, an unprecedented development in Middle Eastern politics. For the first time, several Gulf states are beginning to see Israel less as the primary destabilizing force in the region and more as a potential partner in maintaining regional stability.
Yet this shift does not guarantee peace. Rather, it represents a rare strategic opening that could disappear quickly if Israel fails to align its diplomacy with Gulf priorities through tangible and credible action. The current moment may offer the best opportunity in years to expand Gulf-Israel relations, but it remains fragile and highly dependent on regional stability.
Why Gulf States View Normalization as Strategic, Not Ideological
From the Gulf perspective, normalization with Israel is not an ideological transformation but a strategic calculation rooted in security, technology, and regional influence. Israel’s military capabilities are increasingly viewed as a deterrent force against Iranian aggression and regional instability, while its technological strengths align closely with Gulf diversification agendas and long-term economic planning.
For countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, normalization with Israel is increasingly seen through a geopolitical rather than ideological lens. Gulf leaders also recognize that closer ties with Israel can strengthen their international standing by positioning them as pragmatic actors capable of shaping a more stable regional order.
Still, this convergence alone is not enough to produce lasting peace across the Gulf. The broader regional environment remains volatile, and normalization efforts continue to face political, security, and public legitimacy challenges.
The Missed Promise of the Abraham Accords
The aftermath of October 7 exposed how fragile the regional environment remained. The Abraham Accords were originally intended to create a framework for expanding Arab participation in regional diplomacy and positioning normalization as the primary path toward regional integration. Instead, the war shifted attention elsewhere, leaving the Accords politically stalled and much of their broader potential unrealized.
This has reinforced a growing sense of urgency among regional observers. While momentum toward normalization still exists, Gulf states understand that opportunities for diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East rarely remain open for long.
At the same time, negotiations continue to be approached cautiously by both Israel and the Gulf states. Iran will remain a hostile regional actor regardless of diplomatic overtures, yet its evolving relationship with the United States introduces a new dynamic that could bring Gulf states and Israel closer together through shared strategic concerns.
The Palestinian Issue Still Shapes Gulf Calculations
The Israeli media’s suggestion that swift diplomatic action could yield significant breakthroughs is not unfounded, but Gulf states expect Israel to take concrete steps beyond rhetoric. Confidence-building measures such as cultural exchanges, investment partnerships, humanitarian cooperation, and active participation in multilateral Gulf-led initiatives would help reassure Gulf publics and demonstrate respect for broader regional priorities.
Crucially, however, progress on the Palestinian issue remains essential for legitimacy and sustainability. While shared strategic interests increasingly drive the conversation around normalization, tangible movement on the Palestinian front provides the political cover and public legitimacy necessary to transform normalization from a slow-moving diplomatic process into a broader regional realignment.
Without visible progress on that issue, Gulf governments may continue engaging Israel strategically while remaining hesitant to fully normalize relations at the public and political levels.
Can Israel Turn Regional Momentum Into Lasting Cooperation?
The Gulf states are unlikely to abandon their cautious pragmatism, but neither are they prepared to ignore shifting regional realities. Across much of the Gulf, normalization with Israel is increasingly viewed as a tool for regional stability, deterrence, and international influence rather than a symbolic reorientation of identity.
If Israel can align military strength with diplomatic credibility, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue—the current moment could evolve into something larger than the original Abraham Accords: a broader regional framework built on deterrence, economic integration, and shared strategic interests.
The opportunity remains real, but so does the risk of losing it. Whether the Iran war ultimately revives the Abraham Accords may depend less on military outcomes and more on whether regional actors can translate temporary strategic convergence into durable political trust.
Dr. Ahmed Khuzaie is a Bahraini political analyst and commentator specializing in Gulf security, regional geopolitics, and U.S.–Middle East relations. He is the founder of Khuzaie Associates, a political consulting firm, the author of multiple books on the Gulf and Iran and publishes and appears widely in Arabic and international press.