Western Sahara at a Crossroads: Can Morocco's Autonomy Plan End the Conflict?
By Mustapha Ezzarghani
For more than half a century, the Western Sahara dispute has remained one of Africa's most stubborn territorial conflicts. United Nations peacekeepers have been deployed for 35 years, diplomatic negotiations have repeatedly stalled, and generations of Sahrawi refugees have grown up in camps in neighboring Algeria. Despite decades of international engagement, Morocco and the Polisario Front remain divided over the territory's future, while the UN has struggled to move beyond managing the conflict toward actually resolving it.
Yet the diplomatic landscape is changing. Growing American and European support for Morocco's autonomy initiative, a significant shift at the UN Security Council, and congressional scrutiny of the Polisario Front's alleged Iranian connections have created an opportunity to break the deadlock. The international community should seize this moment to pursue a realistic settlement based on meaningful Sahrawi autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, supported by credible political and international guarantees.
Why the Diplomatic Balance Is Shifting Toward Morocco
Western Sahara has been disputed since Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975. Morocco considers the region, which it calls the Moroccan Sahara, an integral part of its territory, while the Algeria-backed Polisario Front demands Sahrawi independence.
Morocco administers most of the territory and has invested heavily in infrastructure, renewable energy, transportation and economic development. Sovereignty over the Sahara is also deeply embedded in Morocco's national identity, making it highly unlikely that any government in Rabat would voluntarily relinquish control.
The international legal situation remains unresolved. The United Nations continues to classify Western Sahara as a Non-Self-Governing Territory, and Sahrawi self-determination remains central to its diplomatic framework. However, the political environment has shifted substantially in Morocco's favor.
In December 2020, President Donald Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as part of the diplomatic breakthrough that also restored official relations between Morocco and Israel. France subsequently adopted a similar position, with President Emmanuel Macron declaring in 2024 that the territory's present and future fell within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty, a position Paris reaffirmed during his state visit to Morocco.
The most significant development came in October 2025, when the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2797, placing Morocco's autonomy proposal at the center of renewed negotiations and identifying genuine autonomy as a potentially feasible outcome. Although the resolution did not formally recognize Moroccan sovereignty or eliminate Sahrawi self-determination, it marked a notable diplomatic shift toward treating autonomy as a serious basis for negotiations within the search for a mutually acceptable political solution.
These developments suggest that international diplomacy is moving beyond assumptions that dominated the conflict during the 1990s. The challenge now is translating this momentum into a political settlement that reconciles Morocco's territorial position with meaningful Sahrawi self-government.
Algeria's Role and the Growing Iran Question
Any lasting settlement must address Algeria's central role in the conflict. Algeria hosts the Polisario leadership and Sahrawi refugee camps around Tindouf, provides extensive political and diplomatic support to the movement, and remains Morocco's principal strategic competitor in North Africa. For Rabat, Algeria's support for Polisario represents a direct challenge to its territorial integrity, while Algiers considers Sahrawi self-determination an established foreign policy principle.
The dispute is therefore inseparable from the broader Moroccan-Algerian rivalry, which has obstructed regional cooperation and contributed to decades of instability across the Maghreb. A settlement negotiated without Algeria's meaningful participation would be difficult to sustain, making regional security arrangements, confidence-building measures and eventual normalization between the two countries essential components of any diplomatic strategy.
Meanwhile, allegations concerning Polisario's relationships with Iran and Hezbollah have introduced another dimension to the dispute. Morocco severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2018 after accusing Iran and Hezbollah of providing military assistance to Polisario, allegations both denied. As Middle East Journal previously examined, these concerns have increasingly drawn attention in Washington, where lawmakers are examining whether the conflict could become another arena for Iranian regional influence.
In March 2026, Senators Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott introduced the Polisario Front Terrorist Designation Act, seeking action if cooperation between Polisario and Iranian-affiliated terrorist organizations is established. However, introducing legislation does not constitute a terrorist designation, and allegations of Iranian connections alone do not satisfy the legal requirements for such a measure.
Washington should undertake a comprehensive, evidence-based investigation into Polisario's financing, weapons networks and any substantiated operational cooperation with designated terrorist organizations. If the evidence meets the legal threshold for designation, the United States should be prepared to act. If not, that conclusion should be acknowledged. Counterterrorism policy must rest on verifiable evidence rather than becoming another instrument of political pressure in the territorial dispute.
The UN Needs a New Approach
The United Nations established MINURSO, the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara, in 1991 to oversee a ceasefire and help organize a referendum on the territory's future. Thirty-five years later, that referendum has never taken place, while diplomatic missions, negotiations and mandate renewals have continued without producing a political settlement.
MINURSO has played an important role in monitoring the conflict, but institutional continuity should not be mistaken for diplomatic success. The purpose of diplomacy is not simply to preserve negotiations indefinitely, but to narrow differences and produce an agreement capable of implementation. The Security Council should therefore establish a defined negotiating horizon with clear objectives, measurable benchmarks and a realistic political destination.
Morocco's autonomy initiative provides a foundation, but its credibility will depend on the substance of the institutions it proposes. Rabat should present a detailed constitutional framework specifying which powers would remain with the central government and which would be exercised by elected Sahrawi regional authorities. These should include meaningful responsibilities for education, cultural affairs, economic development, taxation, municipal administration and appropriate management of natural resources.
The arrangement must also protect Hassaniya language and culture, guarantee transparent elections and establish judicial safeguards preventing arbitrary interference with regional institutions. Meaningful Sahrawi participation in negotiating these arrangements will be essential. The stronger these political and legal guarantees become, the more persuasive Morocco's argument will be that genuine self-government can coexist with Moroccan sovereignty.
Any settlement must also address the humanitarian consequences of decades of conflict. The UN, UNHCR and international partners should develop mechanisms for voluntary refugee return from the Tindouf camps, family reunification, property claims and economic reintegration. International development assistance should support infrastructure, employment and public services, with Sahrawi communities participating in decisions concerning local investment and resource revenues.
Once an agreement is reached, a transitional period could allow regional institutions to be established, elections organized and former combatants integrated into internationally supported disarmament and reintegration programs. MINURSO could then be reconfigured into a temporary mission monitoring implementation and political guarantees, rather than continuing indefinitely under its existing mandate.
From Managing the Conflict to Resolving It
The United States and the United Nations now have an opportunity to transform changing diplomatic realities into a practical settlement strategy. Washington should consolidate its support for meaningful autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, encourage European and regional partners to engage with that framework, and press Algeria to participate constructively in negotiations. Morocco, in turn, must demonstrate that its autonomy initiative offers genuine political representation and enforceable institutional guarantees rather than simply a new administrative arrangement.
None of this means pretending that the dispute has already been resolved. Polisario continues to reject Moroccan sovereignty, Algeria and Morocco remain deeply divided, and the UN's formal position has not become identical to that of Washington or Rabat. Nevertheless, diplomacy cannot preserve every historical negotiating option indefinitely without considering whether those options remain politically achievable.
After more than half a century, Western Sahara requires a process with clear objectives, realistic sequencing and an identifiable political destination. That should begin with a detailed Moroccan autonomy proposal, proceed through negotiations over constitutional and international guarantees, and culminate in an internationally supported framework for implementation, refugee reintegration and regional reconciliation.
The United Nations has spent decades helping contain the Western Sahara conflict. Its next task should be helping bring it to an end, transforming meaningful Sahrawi autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty from a diplomatic proposal into a credible and durable political settlement.
Mustapha Ezzarghani is a Moroccan-American Muslim peace activist, author, and journalist. He is one of the leading voices advancing dialogue and cooperation between Muslim and Jewish communities, advocating for peace, mutual understanding, and stronger ties between Morocco, Israel, and the United States through public speaking, writing, and civic engagement.