Inside Iran: Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei, And Can There Be Regime Change in Iran?

The Khamenei regime believes that the current war will not last long. It will end soon. Chiefly because the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is making it too expensive for Trump to continue with the war. What validates this belief in Tehran is the rise of oil prices and the fall of major stock exchanges around the world. These are not economic indicators that a sitting US president wants to have when he is approaching his midterm elections, the Iranians believe. 

What is emboldening such predictions inside Iran is Trump’s decision to end fighting against the Houthis in May 2025. The Iranians saw that the Houthis discovered Trump’s vulnerability, namely, attacks against ships in the Bab Al Mandib Straits. These attacks forced the Americans to get involved. But as soon as Trump lost an aircraft and saw the war as too expensive, he reached an agreement with the Houthis. It ended Houthi attacks against US ships, but not on Israeli ones or those bound for Israel. All Iran has to do is keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the same will happen. 

Meanwhile, on March 8, Iran declared the selection of a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ayatollah Khamenei. He is 56 years old, and since the early 2000s, he has acted as an influential behind-the-scenes operator, all thanks to his father. Mojtaba has been known to be particularly close to the IRGC intelligence organization. Its former head, Hossein Taeb, was a close confidant and former comrade of Mojtaba during the Iran-Iraq war. According to various reports, Mojtaba is more hardline than his father and is extremely rich. He has multi-billion-dollar investments in Europe and in Iran. He also stands to inherit part of his father’s fortune, which stands at least at $95 billion.

Yet, it is not clear if he really is in charge of the country, or even his own faculties. All indications are that he ‌sustained injuries during the same aerial attack by Israel that killed his parents and wife. His injuries were allegedly severe enough to prevent him from producing something as meager as a short recorded video clip. So far, his only messages were issued in writing. Anyone could have written it.

Even if he fully recovers and assumes the position, there is no guarantee that he will succeed in putting the regime and the country back on its feet.

Hereditary rule has been successful sometimes. Examples include the Hashemite family in Jordan, the Moroccan royal family, with King Mohammed VI as its latest leader, or the Kim family in North Korea. 

However, there are also examples in history where a ruler who inherited power, caused, or was a witness to the loss of the entire regime. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, whom Mojtaba’s father overthrew alongside Ayatollah Khomeini and others in 1979, is one example. So is Bashar al-Assad. The Khamenei regime propped him up for many years through financial and military assistance.

Read more: Iranian Regime Weaponizes Oil As The War Rages This cost Iran at least $30 billion and the lives of hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Ultimately, his regime collapsed, causing him to escape to Syria. The same could happen to Mojtaba. It is one thing to earn your power and place in a revolutionary regime. Inheriting something solely because you're the leader's child is entirely different.

Mojtaba Khamenei may decide to emulate the example of the Kim family by turning Iran into the Middle East’s version of North Korea, thus making it far more internationally isolated than before. While domestically, doing away with all existing elections and political institutions, though the regime controlled most of them. 

Geographically and historically, this will be much more difficult than with North Korea. 

Historically, in contrast to the people of North Korea, Iran has a rich history of revolutions, with two revolutions in 1905 and 1979. This is, besides many episodes of massive, popular protests, the last of which was put down in January, with at least 30,000 killed.

Geographically, North Korea has borders with three countries, namely China, Russia, and South Korea. But Iran borders seven. Iran’s coastline on the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman borders an additional eight countries. Unlike North Korea, this makes it more difficult to cut off Iran and Iranians from the outside world. 

Iran also has a massive diaspora population, numbering four to five million. Most of them are believed to be anti-regime. Among them are activists who publicize the plight of their compatriots at home and pass news and assistance to them. This is in contrast to the North Korean diaspora community, which is much smaller. Those living in Japan include a large group of pro-North Korean regime supporters.

Mojtaba Khamenei is inheriting a country at war. At no time since the 1979 revolution has the Iranian regime been at war with so many countries. It has never had so many economic and environmental challenges, some of which are critical. Unless he changes ideology for pragmatism, Mojtaba Khamenei could very well be the Islamic Republic of Iran’s last leader.  

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Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel. 

His X handle @Meirja.