Why Might Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities?
- Meir Javedanfar
- Jun 12
- 3 min read
Reports regarding a potential Israeli military attack against Iran are reaching fever pitch. What is fueling these reports?
Iran is under tremendous, unprecedented pressure. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently passed a resolution against Iran. Iran has not been complying with its obligations regarding the transparency of its nuclear program. As The New York Times reported, “this is the first time the UN watchdog has passed a resolution against the country in 20 years.”
Consequently, all UN sanctions against Iran that were removed because of the 2015 nuclear deal could be reimposed.
US President Donald Trump wants Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment program. But Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is refusing to budge. This is a red line he has been unwilling to cross since negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program started in 2003. At minimum, reports of an imminent Israeli attack could be a pressure tactic to convince Ayatollah Khamenei to compromise.
It is also possible that Trump has decided that an actual military attack by Israel is the only way to get Khamenei to compromise. Therefore, Trump plans to use Israel as a proxy to attack non-nuclear targets in Iran, or nuclear targets that are unrelated to the enrichment program, to pressure Iran. Using Israel as a proxy would have the added advantage of not endangering the lives of US service personnel who would be involved in such an attack. Once the Israeli attack gets underway, Trump could then immediately contact the Iranians and offer to end Israel’s attack if they compromise over the enrichment program.
There is also the possibility that Trump has decided that there is no chance that Khamenei will compromise over Iran’s enrichment program; thus, a military attack is the only solution.
Meanwhile, these reports serve Israeli interests, especially that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He believes that the only way to eradicate threats posed by Iran’s nuclear program is by attacking it. Just as Israel solved the threats posed by Iraq’s nuclear program in 1982 and that of Syria in 2007, by attacking them.
Many Israelis would agree, especially since the Iranian regime sponsored and then celebrated the 7 October 2023 massacres. Two days later, Iran’s Supreme Leader stated that the hands of those who planned it should be kissed.
An attack against Iran’s nuclear program could also serve Netanyahu’s political interests. His government is doing badly in the polls. His poll numbers are likely to sink even further after his recent unpopular compromise with ultra-Orthodox parties over the draft issue. At minimum, threats regarding an imminent attack against Iran will hold his shaky coalition in place. At maximum, such threats, or even an actual attack, could be used as an opportunity to boost his standing while sealing his legacy as the Israeli leader who eradicated the Iranian nuclear threat.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in a tough spot. If he shows compromise by backing away from his red line of enrichment, then that could undermine his standing with his supporters at home and abroad. If he does not, he risks war. Even if Israel does not attack, Khamenei faces at least three more years of Trump's pressure tactics, such as threats of war and increased sanctions. They could destabilize his regime.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
His X handle @Meirja.