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Meir Javedanfar

What Does Trump's 2024 Election Win Mean for Iran?


Donald Trump at a campaign rally
Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at the Prescott Valley Event Center in Prescott Valley, Arizona, October 4 2016. (Gage Skidmore)

Donald Trump won the US presidential election on Tuesday, and the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has much to worry about regarding what a Trump presidency could mean for the Islamic Republic. 

Why it matters

  

  • Iran–Russia relations: A new Trump administration could undermine the relations because Trump has promised that once elected, he would end support for Ukraine. Ending the Ukraine war could end Putin's dependence on Iran for weapons, including drones, and leave the Khamenei regime even more isolated and exposed internationally. Additionally, warming US-Russia relations under Trump could cause more damage to the Khamenei regime. Russia has been willing to use Iranian interests as leverage to improve relations with the US before and could do it again. 


  • Qassem Soleimani: Trump is the man who ordered the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani in January 2021. Soleimani was Khamenei's closest confidant and adviser. Khamenei has to be more careful about the actions of Iran’s proxies in the Middle East. With Trump back in office, should Iran’s proxies attack US bases in Iraq and Syria as they have done so on many occasions before, the US response could be deadly, again. 


  • An emboldened Iranian public: Due to his tough stance against the Islamic Republic, Trump enjoys a certain level of popularity among ordinary Iranians, thus worrying Iran's rulers. A new Trump presidency could strengthen more members of the public to challenge the regime. 


  • Economic troubles: Iran is economically weaker than when Trump left office in early January 2021. Back then, Iran's currency, the Rial, stood at approximately 260,000 Rials to the US dollar. Today, it stands at approximately 700,000, a fall of approximately 170%. 

  • Iranian military is weaker: Besides a falling economy, Iran is now comparatively less powerful in the region than before. The military strength of its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah has been greatly weakened in the latest war. Additionally, Iran's military-industrial base and air defenses have been damaged in Israel's retaliatory attacks. Trump has called for a new nuclear deal with Khamenei. Trump could exploit Iran's comparatively weaker economy and military strength to force Iran to the negotiation table and force Iran's hand to make serious concessions. Trump’s close relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the threat of an Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear program could further force Khamenei's hands.     


 

Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel

His X handle @Meirja.

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