The Fall of Assad's Regime: Challenges and Opportunities for Israel
- Michael Barak
- Dec 10, 2024
- 4 min read
The rapid fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime to the rebels within two weeks marks a historic tectonic moment that signals a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East.
Key points
The new change is characterized by a significant weakening of the pro-Iranian resistance axis and a strengthening of the Turkish axis in the region. The changing leadership in Syria serves Israel’s interests and enhances its regional status, particularly with the removal of the Iranian threat from the Syrian border.
The emergence of a new regime in Syria, whose orientation remains uncertain and whose ties to Turkey pose a significant challenge for Israel, necessitates careful intelligence monitoring of developments.
The Syrian rebels are not a monolithic group; they encompass various Islamist and secular ideologies. During Assad's regime, their common goal was to dismantle it, but with that objective achieved, the unifying bond among them may dissolve.
Finally, Turkey emerges as the biggest winner from the regime changes in Syria.
Syria’s new regime
It is still too early to determine the nature and orientation of the new regime in Syria. Rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has been cautious in sending reassuring messages to the international community on Telegram, indicating his intention to maintain peaceful relations, with Iran, and to coexist with Syria's minorities, as well as refrain from using chemical weapons under his control. However, it is essential to consider al-Julani's past, marked by shifting loyalties. He initially emerged in Syria as a representative of ISIS, later aligning with al-Qaeda. Then he led an independent jihadist organization and finally headed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Turkish influence.
Given the context, it is challenging to ascertain whether al-Julani has genuinely undergone a change of heart and become moderate, or if he is merely using a tactic akin to that of the Afghan Taliban, aimed at presenting a moderate image to gain international legitimacy, attract economic investments, build a strong army, and maintain security stability while postponing the achievement of his true goals. There are indications that he intends to establish an Islamic regime within the borders of the Syrian nation-state, but concerns about government stability persist.
Notably, the rebels are not a monolithic group; they encompass various Islamist and secular ideologies. Until the overthrow of Assad's regime, their common goal was to dismantle it. Now that the objective has been achieved, their unifying bond may dissolve, thus raising fears of struggles for control over resources and power and potentially leading to another civil war and the fragmentation of Syria into provinces or cantons. In such a scenario, pro-Iranian forces could regain influence over Syrian territory.
Read more: Iran’s Challenges in Post-Ceasefire Lebanon
Foreign fighters in Syria: Who are they?
Among the rebels' ranks are numerous foreign fighters, including Uyghurs, Uzbeks, Saudis, Europeans, and others. Their stated goal was to migrate to Syria to assist in the fight against Assad, but with that goal now accomplished, questions arise about their future.
Will they be integrated into the institutions of the new Syrian government (which seems unlikely)? Will they return to their home countries to fight against their regimes, utilizing the financial and logistical networks they established with various jihadists?
Or will they migrate to other combat zones, potentially with Turkish support (a likely scenario).
Post-Assad Syria: An opportunity or a threat to Israel?
The collapse of Assad’s regime has profound implications for the Iranian resistance axis.
The drug and arms routes from Syria to Jordan and the West Bank meant to ignite another front against Israel, have been severely disrupted.
Hezbollah faces increased distress due to damage to its economic and logistical support. Sheikh Subhi al-Tufaili, former Secretary General of Hezbollah, has called on Iran and Hezbollah to abandon Syria, urging the Shiite community in Lebanon to prioritize Lebanese national interests over external ones. This sentiment reflects a growing trend among Shiites in Lebanon who seek to distance themselves from Iran's influence and focus on their national interests.
Turkey emerges as the biggest winner from the regime changes in Syria. Turkey’s Erdogan harbors aspirations for regional hegemony, with the rebels playing a crucial role in advancing his vision. The presence of a pro-Turkish Islamic entity on the Syrian-Israeli border poses a threat to Israel's national security. Sooner or later, this entity could demand that Israel return the Golan Heights to Syria, strengthen ties with Palestinian terrorist organizations like Hamas, support the establishment of a Palestinian state, and threaten Israel to comply with its demands, potentially backed by Turkey. The Kurds also face the risk that Erdogan will use the rebels to undermine their power.
Wrap up
Israel should seize the current window of opportunity to establish alliances with minorities in Syria, including the Druze, Kurds, and Christians, and possibly even with rebels who remember the assistance Israel provided to wounded Syrians suffering under Assad's rule over the past decade. If Israel can navigate the situation effectively in Syria, it may contribute to regional stability.
Dr. Michael Barak is a lecturer at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy and Senior Researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) Reichman University (IDC), Herzliya, Israel. He is also a senior researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East Studies (MDC), focusing on Modern Egypt.