Here’s An Iran Nuclear Deal That Israel Could Live With

Two IRGC missiles, Dezful (missile) front and Zolfagar Basir missile rear, on a Zulfaqar missile launcher, at an IRGC Force exhibition in Tehran. (M. Sadegh Nikogostar via Wikimedia commons)

The overwhelming majority of Israel’s political establishment demands the complete dismantlement of the Islamic Republic of Iran's (IRI)’s nuclear program. This is one of the few yet significant areas where the Israeli government and the opposition, led by Yair Lapid, agreed.

This Israeli perspective is bolstered by the IRI’s support for the October 7 Hamas-led massacre. The IRI's proxies, the Houthis and Hezbollah, also subsequently attacked Israel. They both remain a threat.

Israel is not leading nuclear negotiations; Trump is

Israel is not negotiating with Iran. The Trump administration is. The complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program has been declared a red line by the IRI leadership. Therefore, US President Donald Trump may decide against insisting on such an outcome, as it could sink the prospect of a nuclear deal. Instead, Trump might agree to Iran keeping its nuclear installations and activities, but with limitations. 

While not ideal for Israel, the deal could still protect Israel’s interests, considering the general outline below. 

A nuclear deal that could secure Israel’s interests

1. Existing stockpiles of enriched Uranium moved out of Iran According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has sufficient quantities of 60% enriched uranium to make four nuclear bombs. In line with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, these must be permanently transferred abroad.
   

2. Uranium enrichment levels to be kept at a low level of 3.75% To permanently keep enrichment levels at 3.75%. This contrasts with the JCPOA, which allowed Iran to increase enrichment levels to higher levels from 2030.
   

3. Limit Iran’s centrifuges
   

   The JCPOA allows Iran to operate 6,104 older IR-1 centrifuges for 10 years. After that, Iran could use more advanced centrifuges. The cap on Iran’s use of older models should be made permanent. The rest of the existing centrifuges can be placed under lock and key, under the supervision of the IAEA.
   

4. Ban all activities related to missiles that could deliver nuclear weapons The JCPOA, which is based on UNSC resolution 2231, only calls on Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons...” A new deal must ban all activities related to missiles that could deliver nuclear weapons.
   

5. More Iranian nuclear site inspections  JCPOA created the “most robust verification system in existence anywhere in the world.” The new deal should maintain it.  
   

6. The IRI’s support for proxy groups should be ended as part of a new deal

   
   

   A deal is as good as its verification. Confirming the termination of financial and training support from IRI to its proxies will prove challenging. However, the US could use satellite monitoring to confirm that the IRI has stopped sending missiles to its proxies. 
   

Wrap up

The US could also negotiate a deal that bans Iranian long-range missiles. Iran is a sovereign country, and just like every country, it should be able to defend itself. Yet there is nothing defensive about its desires for the blatant elimination of Israel, which it has called for, in Hebrew and in writing on its missiles. 

If a deal is reached, this time, the US should keep it. President Trump’s decision to unilaterally walk out of the JCPOA in May 2018 was detrimental to Israel’s interests.

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Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel. 

His X handle @Meirja.