China & Iran Relations: How Much Should the US and Israel Worry?
- Meir Javedanfar
- Sep 10
- 3 min read
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian just completed a successful visit to China. While there, he participated in the 25th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where he delivered a speech. During the conference, Pezeshkian had bilateral meetings with important world leaders. These included the Presidents of China, Russia, Turkey, the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Secretary General of the United Nations.
The leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) attaches great importance to its relations with China. President Pezeshkian's visit to the SCO summit is just a small example. China’s leader Xi Jinping has held numerous meetings with Iran's most powerful man, Ayatollah Khamenei. The IRI sees China as an important counterweight against its common enemy, the United States. What makes China even more important to the IRI is the fact that it is Iran's biggest oil customer. It is also one of Iran's biggest trade partners. In 2021, while the IRI was under tough sanctions, both countries signed a 25-year cooperation agreement. Consequently, China agreed to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years. In exchange, the IRI agreed to supply oil to China.
With the IRI emerging out of a new conflict with Israel, and nuclear negotiations in deadlock, how much should the US and Israel worry about China’s relations with the IRI?
They should worry. China has recently taken steps in its relations with the IRI that could directly threaten Israel's security.
In January this year, the Financial Times reported that China was dispatching sodium perchlorate, which is a crucial missile fuel chemical, for Iran’s missile program.
Chinese-Iranian ties threaten Israel in two ways
First, the fuel material from China could be used for missiles that the IRI could use to directly attack Israel’s territory, again. As it did on two separate occasions in April and October 2024, the IRI fired over 300 drones and missiles at Israel.
Second, the new missiles could have been transferred to IRI allies, such as the Houthis. This Yemeni terror group has been firing Iranian-made missiles at Israel since the start of the October 7, 2023, war.
The sodium perchlorate shipment arrived in Iran in March but was destroyed in late April in a massive explosion at Iran’s Bandar Rajai port. The cause was believed to be accidental, with over 40 people being killed.
Worryingly for Israel, the Chinese did not stop their efforts to advance Iran's missile program.
On June 5th, it was reported by the Wall Street Journal that the IRI had again ordered “thousands of tons of missile fuel materials from China,” ie, sodium perchlorate. They were to be used for the production of 800 ballistic missiles.
Eight days after the report was published, Israel launched its 12-day operation against the IRI. One of the main targets of this operation was Iran’s missile production facilities. It is possible that the WSJ report contributed to Israel’s decision to launch its unprecedented military operation against Iran.
China also threatens Israeli and U.S. security interests by continuing to be Iran’s biggest oil customer. This enables the IRI leadership to continue defying calls for a new nuclear deal.
Trump’s May 2018 decision to leave the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement was undoubtedly a mistake. But his successor, President Biden, tried hard to return to the nuclear deal. He even made it a campaign promise for his 2021 nomination.
However, on December 1st, 2020, the Iranian parliament passed a new bill which made a potential return to the Iran nuclear deal far more complicated than before.
Complicating matters even more was the IRI’s decision to confront the West by openly supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. What enabled the IRI to defy the West on both accounts was China’s willingness to continue purchasing Iran’s oil, despite sanctions.
According to unconfirmed reports, in August this year, China had “transferred surface-to-air missile systems to Iran following the ceasefire with Israel”. If true, this shows China’s determination to assist the IRI militarily.
Meanwhile, China’s continued purchase of over 90% of the IRI’s oil exports enables the latter to defy calls for a new nuclear deal with the U.S.
This is a direct threat to Israel and U.S security, as the IRI’s defiance could ultimately lead to a new war.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli lecturer, author, and commentator. He teaches various Iran-related courses at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.
His X handle @Meirja.